Xi Jinping doesn't trust his generals. It sounds like a plot from a Cold War thriller, but it's the reality of Beijing in 2026. For years, the world watched as Xi consolidated power, thinking he had finally secured the ultimate loyalty of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). We were wrong. The massive purges we've seen lately aren't just routine "anti-corruption" sweeps. They're a sign of a deep, systemic breakdown in the relationship between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its armed wing.
If you’re looking at the headlines about missing ministers and ousted generals, you’re seeing the smoke. The fire is much deeper. Xi isn't just cleaning house; he’s trying to fix a military that he fears is fundamentally incapable of winning a modern war. He’s realized that the people he hand-picked to lead his "world-class force" might be more interested in lining their pockets than in actual combat readiness.
The Rocket Force Meltdown
The most glaring evidence of this lack of faith lies in the Rocket Force. This is the branch responsible for China’s nuclear and conventional missiles. It's the crown jewel of the PLA. Yet, in the last year, we’ve seen a total decapitation of its leadership. Generals Li Yuchao and Xu Zhongbo didn't just retire early. They vanished.
When you see the top brass of your most sensitive military unit getting hauled away, it tells you two things. First, the corruption Xi thought he’d beaten back in 2012 is still alive and well. Second, the technical readiness of China’s missiles is likely compromised. There are reports of fuel tanks being filled with water instead of propellant and silos with lids that don't function correctly. Imagine being the leader of a superpower and finding out your "nuclear deterrent" has the structural integrity of a cheap toy. You’d lose faith too.
The corruption in the Rocket Force is particularly damning because this branch was Xi’s baby. He elevated it to a full service branch in 2015. He poured billions into it. The fact that it became a hotbed of graft under his watch is a personal insult and a strategic disaster. It suggests that despite a decade of "Tiger and Flies" crackdowns, the PLA’s culture hasn't changed. It’s still a system where loyalty is bought and equipment contracts are skimmed.
The Quality Control Nightmare
Xi’s frustration isn't just about stolen money. It’s about the hardware. The Central Military Commission’s Equipment Development Department has been under intense scrutiny. Why? Because the stuff the PLA is buying doesn't always work.
Think about the complexity of a modern fighter jet or an aircraft carrier. These systems require thousands of high-tech components. If the procurement officers are taking kickbacks to use sub-par materials, the entire platform becomes a liability. Xi is obsessed with "Shortcomings" and "Peace Disease"—the idea that a military that hasn't fought a real war since 1979 is getting soft and incompetent.
He looks at his generals and sees men who are great at navigating the bureaucracy of the CCP but have zero experience in the chaos of a high-tech battlefield. He’s worried they’re lying to him about what the PLA can actually do. In a system where telling the boss what he wants to hear is the only way to survive, the truth about military capability is the first casualty.
The Ghost of the Soviet Collapse
We can’t understand Xi’s mindset without looking at his obsession with the fall of the Soviet Union. He’s studied it intensely. His takeaway? The Soviet Communist Party lost control of the military, and the military didn't have the "balls" to save the party when things got tough.
Xi’s "Absolute Leadership" mantra isn't just a slogan. It’s a survival strategy. He believes that if the PLA isn't 100% ideologically aligned with him, the CCP will vanish. But there’s a paradox here. By demanding absolute political loyalty, he’s often promoting "red" over "expert." He wants generals who are loyalists first and tacticians second. But then he gets frustrated when those loyalists turn out to be incompetent or corrupt. You can’t have it both ways, but he’s trying to force it anyway.
The Taiwan Pressure Cooker
Everything in Beijing eventually comes back to Taiwan. Xi has set ambitious goals for military modernization by 2027. If he’s going to make a move, he needs a military that functions like a precision instrument.
The recent purges suggest he’s realized the PLA isn't ready. If he were confident in his generals, he wouldn't be firing them in the middle of a period of high regional tension. You don't swap out your commanders right before a big operation unless you think they’re going to fail you. This "loss of faith" acts as a temporary brake on conflict. It shows that Xi is a realist about his own weaknesses, even if he won't admit them publicly.
Checking the Reality of PLA Power
Don't mistake this internal chaos for total weakness. The PLA is still massive. It still has more ships than the US Navy. It still has a terrifying array of ballistic missiles. But a military is more than just a list of assets on a spreadsheet. It’s about the "software"—the people, the training, and the command structure.
Xi is currently trying to rewrite that software on the fly. He’s shifting power away from the traditional ground forces toward the navy and air force. He’s trying to implement "jointness," where different branches actually talk to each other. But he’s doing all this while also running a massive purge that has every officer looking over their shoulder. It’s hard to innovate when you’re terrified of being the next person to disappear.
How to Track the Next Purge
If you want to see where Xi’s faith is wavering next, watch the civilian-military integration sectors. Watch the aerospace firms and the semiconductor initiatives. These are the areas where the "New Quality Productive Forces" meet the military.
- Look for sudden "resignations" in state-owned defense enterprises.
- Watch for the reappearance (or lack thereof) of figures like Wei Fenghe or Li Shangfu.
- Pay attention to the language in the PLA Daily. If they start hammering on "political integrity" again, another wave of arrests is coming.
Xi’s distrust creates a brittle system. It’s a military that looks terrifying from the outside but is hollowed out by fear and suspicion on the inside. For the rest of the world, this is a double-edged sword. A less capable PLA might be less likely to start a war, but an insecure leader with a finger on the button is a different kind of danger entirely.
The smart move is to stop looking at China as a monolithic block. It’s a collection of competing interests held together by a leader who is increasingly convinced that his own protectors are his biggest problem. Keep your eyes on the Central Military Commission. The names that disappear from the roster tell a much bigger story than any official press release ever will.
