Sam Farmer’s final mock draft just dropped, and it’s sending shockwaves through Columbus. If you thought the SEC had a permanent lease on the top ten, think again. The Los Angeles Times veteran reporter isn't just leaning into the Big Ten hype; he’s practically building a scarlet and gray shrine at the podium. We're looking at a scenario where Ohio State could land four players in the first ten picks. That isn't just a good year. It’s a complete hostile takeover of the professional ranks.
The draft kicks off in less than 48 hours, and the buzz in league circles suggests Farmer’s projections are more than just guesswork. General managers are desperate for "pro-ready" talent, and Columbus has turned into a finishing school for the NFL. You don't just see athletes there; you see players who have been coached by a staff that operates like a pro front office.
The Ohio State four-pack in the top ten
Farmer’s mock puts the spotlight on a defensive core that spent the last year terrorizing collegiate offenses. At the top of that list is safety Caleb Downs. It’s rare to see a safety go in the top five, but Downs isn't your typical defensive back. He’s a cerebral assassin who was calling defensive adjustments at Alabama as a freshman before moving north. He’s the kind of player who makes the ten guys around him 20% better just by existing.
Then you’ve got the linebackers. Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles are projected to go early, and for good reason. Reese is a violent, twitchy edge-setter who Farmer has going at No. 2 overall in some iterations. Styles, on the other hand, is a position-less freak of nature. One play he’s dropping 30 yards downfield in coverage, the next he’s stone-walling a 320-pound tackle. NFL defensive coordinators are drooling over that versatility.
The fourth name in this elite quartet is wide receiver Carnell Tate. While the Browns at No. 6 are a popular landing spot, Farmer suggests he could go even higher. In an era where pass-catchers are paid like quarterbacks, Tate’s polished route running makes him a day-one WR1. He doesn't waste movement. He doesn't drop the ball. He just wins.
Why the Raiders are pivoting to Fernando Mendoza
While Ohio State is the story of the draft, the biggest individual shocker in Farmer’s mock is at the very top. He’s got the Las Vegas Raiders taking Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza at No. 1.
Wait, Indiana? Yes.
Mendoza has been the fastest riser in this cycle. He’s got the "it" factor that scouts can't quite quantify but coaches can't live without. He’s accurate, he’s mobile enough to survive a broken pocket, and he’s shown a level of leadership that turned a middling program into a contender. The Raiders need a face for the franchise, and Mendoza fits the "outlaw" vibe while bringing a high football IQ to the building.
The defensive trench war at the top
If you aren't picking a Buckeye or a quarterback, you're probably looking at the defensive line. Farmer’s mock is heavy on "disruptors." David Bailey out of Texas Tech is a name that keeps popping up in the top three. He’s got an elite get-off that reminds people of a young Von Miller.
Teams like the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals are sitting in the catbird seat here. They don't necessarily need to reach for a quarterback, which allows them to grab blue-chip defensive anchors. The gap between the elite pass rushers and the second tier in this draft is massive. If you don't get one of the top three guys, you're basically gambling on developmental projects.
What this means for your team on Thursday night
If you're a fan of a team picking in the back half of the first round, prepare for a weird night. With so much talent concentrated at the top—specifically from the Big Ten—the mid-round value is going to be found in the "boring" positions.
- Offensive Line Depth: Look for guys like Emmanuel Pregnon (Oregon) and Will Campbell (LSU) to slide slightly if the receiver run happens early.
- The Safety Value: Since Caleb Downs is likely gone by pick five, the next tier of safeties might fall into the late 20s.
- Cornerback Chaos: There isn't a consensus CB1 this year. Farmer has several teams reaching for "traits" over production.
How to watch the board develop
Watch the Cleveland Browns at No. 6. They are the pivot point. If they pass on Carnell Tate, it could trigger a slide for the receivers that pushes elite defensive talent down to teams like the Saints and Bengals.
The biggest mistake you can make as a fan is getting attached to a specific "big board." Mock drafts like Sam Farmer’s aren't just about talent rankings; they’re about team needs and front-office whispers. When the Raiders are on the clock at No. 1, don't be surprised if the "experts" start scrambling to rewrite their scripts. This draft is top-heavy, Ohio State-dominated, and completely unpredictable.
Keep an eye on the trade market. Teams are looking to jump into that top eight to snag one of the Buckeyes. If your team is sitting at four or five, they’re going to get some very lucrative phone calls. Take the deal. This draft is deep enough that moving back five spots could still net you a perennial Pro Bowler and an extra first-rounder for next year.
